Jumping to Conclusions: For Better Results, Look Before You Leap

Examples of jumping to conclusions

• Tom texted a friend to say hello, and the friend did not respond. Tom concluded that the friend is angry at him.
• Abby decided not to pursue a promotion at work, even though she was encouraged to do so by her supervisor because she concluded that other candidates would be more qualified.
• Sarah broke up with her boyfriend, fearing that he was about to break up with her, even though he had ensured her otherwise.

In each of these examples, the individual has jumped to a conclusion that very well may be accurate — sometimes people do hold grudges, advise us wrongly, or mislead us. However, the conclusions to which these individuals jumped are probably not the most accurate or realistic of conclusions, given the context. Therefore, each individual may have unintentionally engaged in an act of self-sabotage by jumping to an unhelpful conclusion without having sufficient evidence for it.

When jumping to conclusions is necessary

The difficulty with combating this cognitive distortion is that we all must make assumptions in life. We can never know exactly what another person is thinking or have complete knowledge of any situation we find ourselves in. The world that we perceive is only the tip of the iceberg. Therefore, we have to make decisions based on incomplete information, while trying our best to steer clear of maladaptive conclusions.

Any time we interact with someone, we must be willing to make assumptions about that person’s intentions. We would not be able to function in society otherwise. Imagine attempting to order a meal at a restaurant without making any assumptions about how the waiter will interact with us. We might conclude that she would be as likely to start dancing a jig as to take our order.

In reality, we can safely assume that the waiter’s behavior will conform with soft assumptions and expectations about her role, which is more or less standardized: she will politely greet us, may engage in a bit of small talk, may ask if we have any questions about the menu, and then will ask for our order. We know this general procedure — even at a restaurant, we have never been to — because our society has developed social norms, or generally agreed-upon behaviors, in order to reduce the guesswork of routine interactions.

Even with social norms, however, there is likely to be some variance in each interaction, and this is where jumping to conclusions usually occurs. Maybe the waiter makes an unexpected joke with an unclear meaning or an ambiguous comment about our appearance. This is where making assumptions is both necessary and potentially dangerous.

How to stop jumping to conclusions

To keep from jumping to conclusions, the best thing we can do is reality test our thoughts. This means exploring the evidence both for and against any conclusion we draw. This is difficult because, as we know, the world we perceive is only the tip of the iceberg.

When faced with incomplete information, we must have some sort of decision-making process to help us along in the face of uncertainty. In my practice as a psychotherapist, I have observed that we are likely to jump to whichever conclusion has the largest emotion attached to it. To return to the first example above, Tom has texted a friend and hasn’t received a response. A few possible explanations Tom may consider for the lack of response from the friend include:

• The friend has read the message but is choosing to ignore him.
• The friend hasn’t yet read the message.
• The friend has read the message but has forgotten to respond.
• The friend has read the message, and has not forgotten about it, but has not yet responded.

Until the friend clarifies to Tom exactly why he hasn’t responded to him, Tom will not be able to know which of the above, if any, is the most accurate explanation. Therefore, unless Tom can keep himself in a suspended state of uncertainty, he will have to draw a conclusion about the likely motive for the friend’s behavior.

Each of these explanations is possible. But if Tom concludes that the friend has chosen not to respond to him out of anger, then Tom has probably fallen into the trap of assuming that explanation which carries with it the most intense emotion, without regard to whether that explanation may be the most accurate. In a sense, this mistake is understandable: if Tom can’t know the true answer, then the emotional pull tied to each conclusion acts, in a way, as a tiebreaker.

The bigger the emotion, the more realistic the thought?

However, there is no correlation between how much emotion a given thought evokes and how likely that thought is to be true. This is an essential concept that is worth committing to memory. The stickiest thoughts, or the ones that seem to hang around the longest, are often ones that stir up a lot of emotion. It’s important to recognize that, on the surface, these sticky thoughts are no more valid than any other passing thought. The sticky thoughts stick because they make us feel intensely, not because they are necessarily more realistic.

For comparison, think about how much less emotional Tom might feel if the friend has not responded to him because the friend is having an unusually busy day at work? He may feel slightly irritated, or perhaps even concerned, but it’s unlikely these emotions would be as intense as if he were to assume the friend is actively ignoring him. Similarly, how upset would he be if concluded that the friend has read his message but forgot to respond? Again, he might feel some degree of annoyance or hurt, but the reaction is likely to be mild as compared to the first explanation.

Which explanation is the real one? We’ll have to wait for his friend to let him know! Until then, let’s hope Tom doesn’t jump to whichever conclusion will make him the most miserable. While we’re at it, let’s try to do the same for ourselves.

Photo Credit:

Photo by Benjamin Wedemeyer on Unsplash

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