Worst Case Scenario Thinking: How to Stop Catastrophizing

Examples of worst case scenario thinking

The following are examples of worst case scenario thinking:

• Lilly failed the first exam of the semester, and has concluded that there is no possible way she can succeed in college.
• Jake has a stomach ache and assumes that it is a life threatening condition.
• Abby is ten minutes late for work for the first time and therefore she expects to be fired.

In each of these examples, the individual has experienced a negative outcome or event and has assumed that this outcome will lead to a catastrophic or worst scenario. The worst case result is not outside the bounds of realism in any of these cases; however, it is also probably not a particularly likely outcome. The individual has passed over more likely — and less catastrophic — outcomes to settle on an extreme.

Can worst case scenario thinking be helpful?

One of the more common beliefs I run across in my practice as a psychotherapist is that worst case scenario thinking is protective in some way: if we prepare for the worst, then we won’t be disappointed if the worst actually happens. Further, if something less-than-catastrophic happens, then we will be relieved.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it can lead to a perpetual state of negative thinking. To use an example above, Jake fears that his stomach ache is the sign of a life-threatening condition. He goes to the doctor, who informs him that all signs point to a mild stomach bug that is going around in his community. Jake is relieved by this news and goes home happy. But that evening, he begins to wonder whether the doctor has misdiagnosed him. He finds a few anecdotes online about how doctors failed to identify life threatening conditions in their patients and he is a nervous wreck all over again.

How to stop worst case scenario thinking: identify the goal posts

Here’s an exercise to reduce worst case scenario thinking: I call it the “goal post” exercise.

When you find yourself falling prey to worst case scenario thinking, take a minute to identify the best case scenario. This will give you two goal posts, or the two extremes between which the vast majority of potential outcomes will fall. The worst case scenario is the first goal post, and the best case scenario is the second.

To use another one of the examples above, Lilly has just failed her first exam of the semester. Her worst case scenario is that she will flunk out of college altogether as a result of this bad outcome.

• Goal post #1 (worst case scenario): flunk out of college.

So, what is the best case scenario? Perhaps Lilly is shaken by this poor grade and realizes she needs to work three times as hard as she thought she would in order to succeed. She radically alters her priorities by cutting back on nightlife and other social engagements so that she has extra time for study. She gets all As for the semester.

• Goal post #2 (best case scenario: radically alter priorities and achieve all As.

If the best case scenario seems unlikely, that’s the point! It’s the best possible outcome. But the truth is that best case scenario probably isn’t any more unrealistic than the worst case scenario, but because we have a natural negativity bias. This is why we seem to find the worst case scenario to be much more plausible than its opposite.

This exercise is intended to illustrate that both extremes are unlikely (true, anyone can flunk out of college, but if one is putting in an honest effort to succeed, it isn’t the most likely outcome).

So what is a likely outcome?

Now that we’ve identified the worst case and best case scenarios, we can find a middle ground that will probably be more realistic than either of them.

The most probable outcomes generally lie in the middle of the extremes

After identifying the goal posts, the next step is to identify the mean (or midpoint) between the extremes. If the first extreme is flunking out of college, and the second extreme is earning all As, then the middle ground is, let’s say, earning Cs.

• The mid-point between goalposts #1 and 2: earning Cs for the semester

Therefore, if Lilly fails her first exam of the semester, and then she decides to buckle down and make academics a priority, it is probably more realistic to expect that she can earn Cs across the board than that she will either flunk out entirely or earn all As. All Cs may not be a fantastic outcome, but, in most circumstances, it isn’t an unmitigated disaster, either. This isn’t also to say that she can’t strive for better — but if she is fearing all Fs, then Cs is a stark improvement.

If you notice that you are feeling anxious, hopeless, or otherwise distressed about a future event, ask yourself whether you may be anticipating a worst case scenario. If you are, stop and imagine what the best case scenario might be. When you’ve done that, you now have your two goal posts. Finally, identify a middle ground between these two extremes, and then ask yourself whether that middle ground is more realistic than either extreme.

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Photo by Simran Sood on Unsplash